McGreevy (ERA 3.48, WHIP 1.22) holds a clear advantage over Singer (ERA 4.66, WHIP 1.44), who has been one of the more hittable starters in the NL. The Cardinals carry a meaningfully better pitching staff ERA (3.89 vs 4.30) and RA/G (3.63 vs 4.29). Cincinnati's lineup is in rough shape: multiple key hitters are ice-cold (De La Cruz L14 .132, Bleday .170, Stephenson .159, Friedl .065), and the team is scoring just 3.2 R/G over their last 10. STL at near-even odds (-106) offers slight positive value given the pitching edge.

Gavin Williams is one of the best value arms on the slate — ERA 3.74, WHIP 1.08, and 190 strikeouts in 149 IP is elite-level production. The Giants are scoring just 2.7 R/G over their last 10 games and rank among the worst offenses on today's card. Cleveland's offense features DeLauter (L14 .339), Angel Martínez (L14 .333), and Nathaniel Lowe (L14 .462 in 3G) providing hot bats. The -186 price is steep but Williams's dominance and SF's anemic recent offense justify a lean toward Cleveland.

Tampa Bay is the class of today's slate with a .603 win percentage and a scorching offense over the last 10 games (6.3 R/G, AVG .311, OPS .834). Ian Seymour (ERA 4.11, WHIP 1.13, 115 K in 96.1 IP) is a solid arm on a team with elite run support. Bieber has been ineffective this year (ERA 4.99, WHIP 1.56 in just 48.2 IP) and the Blue Jays hit LHP very poorly (.221/.628). Tampa's lineup bats .268/.765 vs RHP and features multiple hot hitters in Simpson (.393), Richie Palacios (.333), and Walls (.279) over the last 14 games. Strong multi-factor edge for TB.

Dobnak's ERA of 1.73 comes in a small 41.2-inning sample, making it highly unreliable as a true talent indicator. The Athletics' team ERA of 5.39 is poor but Jump (ERA 4.50) is passable. KC's lineup has several hot bats (Caglianone L14 .471, Massey .327, Pasquantino .333) and a 4-game win streak, but Oakland's recent offense has been solid (4.9 R/G last 5). Both teams hover around mediocre records and the moneyline is relatively tight. With Dobnak's small sample creating uncertainty and neither pitcher offering a clear, durable edge, this is a pass.

The White Sox are playing their best baseball on the slate right now — 5.3 R/G in the last 10 games and an OPS .837 over that stretch. Atlanta is in a troubling stretch: L3 losing streak, just 3.2 R/G over the last 10, and multiple cold bats (Olson L14 .212, Albies .133). The Braves' lineup faces Kay (LHP) at .243/.716 — a modest split advantage that matters little with how cold they are. CWS has Vargas, Meidroth, Peters, and Grichuk all hot, and -102 home price is nearly neutral value. Slight lean to CWS based on current form edge.

Milwaukee is the better team by record (.614 vs .472) with a superior offense (OPS .744, 5.4 R/G last 10) and they face a left-handed Gasser, against whom the Brewers actually hit worse (.238/.696 vs LHP). However, MIL's lineup hits RHP well (.258/.747) and Kirby is a solid but not elite arm (ERA 3.89, WHIP 1.31). The key edge is Seattle's lineup hits LHP poorly (.216/.640 season) against Gasser, and Milwaukee's recent run production is strong. Kirby's solid ERA keeps this from being a strong lean, but Milwaukee's overall quality and offensive edge at home provide a moderate lean.

Gerrit Cole (ERA 3.22, WHIP 1.08) offers a meaningful pitching edge over Bradish (ERA 3.65, WHIP 1.36), and the Yankees carry the best pitching staff ERA on today's slate (3.12 team ERA). Baltimore's lineup has been hot recently (5.5 R/G last 10, Pete Alonso on an absolute tear at L14 .396) which tempers the lean. However, NYY's W3 streak, better record (.563 vs .480), and Cole's superior numbers give the Yankees the edge at a near-neutral -119 price. The Orioles being on an L3 losing streak adds further weight to the Yankees side.

Jacob deGrom (ERA 3.95, WHIP 1.17, 147 K in 120.2 IP) is a quality arm against a Washington lineup that manages only .246/.753 vs RHP. DeGrom's strikeout rate is elite and his WHIP is excellent. Washington's Alvarez (ERA 3.72, WHIP 1.33) is solid but Texas hits LHP at .251/.734, providing a moderate split edge. However, Texas's offense has been very cold recently (2.8 R/G last 10, multiple ❄️ hitters), limiting confidence. At -158, the price is in slight negative value territory, and the Rangers' cold offense is a real risk. Modest lean to TEX on pitching quality.

Peter Lambert (ERA 3.11, WHIP 1.15, 117 K in 118.2 IP) is one of the better-value arms on today's slate, facing a weak Angels lineup (OPS .682, 3.1 R/G last 10, AVG .220 last 5). Grayson Rodriguez has been awful (ERA 7.17, WHIP 1.59 in 59 IP) — one of the worst SP performances on the card. Houston's lineup features Yordan Alvarez (OPS 1.040, though cold recently), Altuve (L14 .353), Cam Smith (L14 .349), and Paredes (.300 L14). While Houston's team has been cold recently (3.4 R/G last 10), the pitching mismatch is significant enough to support a lean at -177, though the price tempers the value.

MLB Picks — August 20, 2026

Strong Leans

TOR @ TB

Leans

STL @ CIN

SF @ CLE

ATL @ CWS

SEA @ MIL

NYY @ BAL

WSH @ TEX

LAA @ HOU

Passes

ATH @ KC