Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox

Suarez (ERA 3.25, WHIP 1.19, 110 K) holds a clear advantage over a struggling Kelly (ERA 5.11, WHIP 1.48). Boston's team ERA (3.31) and RA/G (3.07) are among the best in baseball. The key wrinkle: Arizona actually hits LHP significantly better (.276/.786 vs LHP vs .231/.686 vs RHP), which is a notable reverse split concern for Suarez. Boston's lineup hits Kelly's RHP at .246/.711, which is below their overall level. Wilyer Abreu (.375 L14) and Caleb Durbin (.346 L14) are hot for Boston. Arizona's L2 losing streak and Kelly's struggles cap this at a moderate lean. The -165 price slightly reduces value.