Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox

Payton Tolle has been excellent (2.97 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 128 K in 115 IP) and Boston's pitching staff leads the game with a 3.32 ERA and 3.08 RA/G. Arizona has been cold (L3 streak, 4-6 L10, 3 R/G L5 pace) with multiple ❄️ hitters, and Arizona's offense splits at .231/.686 vs RHP so Pfaadt going opposite doesn't help. While Pfaadt is solid (3.11 ERA, 1.13 WHIP), Tolle's edge gives Boston a clear pitching advantage. Boston's Wilyer Abreu is 🔥 and the lineup is reasonably productive at 4.9 R/G L5. At -158, the price is slight negative value but the edges in pitching and form support the lean.