MLB Picks · July 24, 2026
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals
Strong Lean
Diamondbacks ML
-125
77
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Arizona Diamondbacks · Away
Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP)
Washington Nationals · Home
Carson Palmquist (LHP)
AI Analysis
Eduardo Rodriguez (2.62 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 116.2 IP) is a significant upgrade over Palmquist (8.74 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, only 11.1 IP) — an enormous pitching gap. Arizona is riding an 8-2 L10 and a 3-game win streak, scoring 7.3 R/G in that span. The Diamondbacks' offense has been explosive recently (.284 AVG, .874 OPS L10), with hot bats from Moreno, Arenado, Vargas, and Del Castillo. While the Nationals have a powerful lineup (Wood, Abrams), Palmquist's tiny sample and ugly ERA make him a major liability. At -125, the value is reasonable for the edge.
Concerns
- •Washington's lineup is legitimately dangerous (Wood, Abrams, Garcia — all hot)
- •Nationals hit LHP well (.267/.787), partially offsetting E-Rod's quality
- •WSH is at home and has scored 6.7 R/G in last 10 games
- •Carroll and Marte are both in cold spells (❄️) for AZ
Factor Breakdown