MLB Picks · July 7, 2026
Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Strong Lean
Pirates ML
-149
77
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Atlanta Braves · Away
Hurston Waldrep (RHP)
Pittsburgh Pirates · Home
Paul Skenes (RHP)
AI Analysis
Paul Skenes (3.62 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 119 K in 97 IP) provides a significant pitching advantage over Waldrep, who has barely pitched (7.1 IP with a 3.68 ERA/1.64 WHIP — far too small a sample to trust). Pittsburgh's offense is on fire (6.6 R/G L5, .875 OPS L5, .788 OPS vs RHP) with Gonzales hitting .431 L14. Atlanta is 4-6 L10 with a L2 streak, and several key bats are cold (Albies .214 L14, Baldwin .132 L14, Mateo .107 L14). The -149 price is slightly elevated but the value exists given Skenes's edge and Pittsburgh's red-hot offense.
Concerns
- •Waldrep's tiny sample (7.1 IP) makes ERA/WHIP unreliable
- •Braves still have elite talent (Olson .890 OPS, Harris .846 OPS)
- •Pirates at -149 carries slight negative value
- •ATL pitching staff solid overall (3.55 ERA)
Factor Breakdown