MLB Picks · August 29, 2026
Baltimore Orioles vs Athletics
Lean
Orioles ML
-140
59
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Baltimore Orioles · Away
Shane Baz (RHP)
Athletics · Home
Jack Perkins (RHP)
AI Analysis
Neither starter is good — Baz (4.04 ERA) and Perkins (6.68 ERA) both fail the pitching gate individually, but the gap between them is substantial enough to form a lean. Perkins is among the worst starters on this slate (6.68 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 3-9) while Baz, despite his modest ERA, is better. BAL's Pete Alonso (.375 L14, 32 HR) and Colton Cowser (.344 L14) are genuinely hot, and the Orioles are a better team (66-69 vs 53-82). ATH's bullpen is also poor (5.38 team ERA). The +131 underdog price on Athletics is tempting given their recent hitters (Butler .360, McNeil .327, Bolte .316 L14) but their team quality and Perkins' struggles outweigh that.
Concerns
- •Baz's 4.04 ERA and 1.35 WHIP fail the pitching gate — this is a lean only
- •ATH hitters Butler, McNeil, Bolte all hot in L14 — lineup is producing
- •BAL L5 offense has been modest (4.4 R/G, .219 AVG)
- •BAL's team record (66-69) is not inspiring despite being better than ATH
- •Perkins' 6.68 ERA is the main driver — if he escapes early, value collapses
Factor Breakdown