MLB Picks · June 23, 2026
Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels
Strong Lean
Baltimore Orioles ML
-144
72
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Baltimore Orioles · Away
Shane Baz (RHP)
Los Angeles Angels · Home
Ryan Johnson (RHP)
AI Analysis
Ryan Johnson (12.83 ERA, 2.33 WHIP, 13.1 IP) has been historically bad — one of the worst qualified starters in baseball this season. Baltimore's offense hits RHP at .247/.745 and has several solid bats led by Blaze Alexander (.439 L14 🔥), Gunnar Henderson, and Pete Alonso. Shane Baz (4.04 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) is not dominant but is miles ahead of Johnson. The Orioles are on a 3-game win streak and are the better team. Los Angeles at 32-48 is among the worst teams in the league. At -144, the price is fair given Johnson's catastrophic numbers.
Concerns
- •Baz ERA 4.04, WHIP 1.36 — not elite, leaves room for Angels to score
- •Angels hit RHP at .242/.718 and scored 5.0 R/G in last 10
- •Several Baltimore cold bats: Basallo, Coby Mayo L14
- •Johnson sample is tiny (13.1 IP) — small sample caveat
Factor Breakdown