MLB Picks · September 16, 2026
Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets
Lean
Baltimore Orioles ML
+112
59
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Baltimore Orioles · Away
Chris Bassitt (RHP)
New York Mets · Home
Robert Stock (RHP)
AI Analysis
Both starters are problematic: Stock (5.93 ERA, 1.75 WHIP in 30.1 IP) is essentially a back-of-bullpen arm, while Bassitt (4.88 ERA, 1.59 WHIP) is also struggling. However, Baltimore's offense is buoyed by Pete Alonso (.861 OPS, 36 HR) and Coby Mayo 🔥, giving them some upside vs Stock. The Mets have been hot offensively (6.2 R/G L10) but many key hitters are cold (Soto, Alvarez, Bichette have been inconsistent recently). At +112, Baltimore offers modest underdog value in a coin-flip game. This is a marginal lean at best.
Concerns
- •Bassitt's 4.88 ERA/1.59 WHIP is poor — NYM offense can score
- •Mets scoring 6.2 R/G in last 10 — genuinely hot offense
- •Multiple BAL hitters cold (Taveras, Basallo, Cowser all ❄️)
- •NYM RA/G only 3.15 — strong bullpen could neutralize BAL offense
- •Stock's tiny sample makes ERA meaningless projectively
Factor Breakdown