MLB Picks · September 12, 2026
Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays
Lean
Blue Jays ML
-131
65
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Baltimore Orioles · Away
Kyle Bradish (RHP)
Toronto Blue Jays · Home
Spencer Miles (RHP)
AI Analysis
Spencer Miles has been excellent this season (ERA 2.77, WHIP 1.05 in 87.2 IP) and provides a meaningful pitching edge over Bradish (ERA 3.91, WHIP 1.42). Baltimore's offense is cold — 3-7 in L10, only 4 R/G in L5, and most of their top bats are ice cold (Taveras ❄️, Basallo ❄️, Cowser ❄️). Toronto's L5 offense has been better at 4.5 R/G and several hitters are hot (Springer 🔥, Lukes 🔥, Straw 🔥). The -131 line is in the neutral value range. A moderate lean to Toronto is warranted.
Concerns
- •Baltimore's Coby Mayo is hot (🔥) and Pete Alonso remains a threat
- •Toronto lineup overall is not overwhelming — team OPS .697
- •Blue Jays on a 2-game losing streak
- •Bradish's WHIP 1.42 is high but 140 K in 152 IP shows swing-and-miss
Factor Breakdown