MLB Picks · September 13, 2026
Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays
Strong Lean
Blue Jays ML
-151
70
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Baltimore Orioles · Away
Trevor Rogers (LHP)
Toronto Blue Jays · Home
Dylan Cease (RHP)
AI Analysis
Dylan Cease (2.40 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 227 K in 161.1 IP) is an elite starter providing a massive pitching edge over Rogers (4.15 ERA). The critical split concern is that Toronto's lineup hits worse vs LHP (.227/.651) facing Rogers, but even so, their L10 offensive output has been strong (5.1 R/G last 5). Baltimore's lineup is riddled with cold hitters and struggling at the plate this season. Cease's dominance is the anchor for this pick at -151.
Concerns
- •Toronto lineup hits significantly worse vs LHP (.227/.651 vs LHP vs .257/.714 vs RHP)
- •Baltimore's Rogers has been solid (4.15 ERA, 10-9, 1.21 WHIP)
- •Baltimore on a losing streak but Orioles have power threats (Alonso 35 HR, Mayo .298 L14)
- •-151 is slight negative value territory
Factor Breakdown