MLB Picks · August 25, 2026
Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins
Strong Lean
Red Sox ML
-147
76
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Boston Red Sox · Away
Payton Tolle (LHP)
Miami Marlins · Home
TBD
AI Analysis
Boston's Payton Tolle is one of the better pitching values on the slate — 3.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 134 K in 120 IP — and the Red Sox have been scorching hot in recent play (7-3 L10, W4 streak, 5.5 R/G in L5). Miami's starter is TBD, which is a significant disadvantage in planning and likely signals a bullpen or spot-start game. The Marlins hit poorly against LHP (.239/.704), which plays directly into Tolle's hands. Miami's offense is below average (3.79 R/G) and several lineup staples are cold. Boston at -147 is moderate value given the matchup edge.
Concerns
- •Several key BOS hitters cold recently (Contreras, Rutschman, Monasterio)
- •Miami TBD starter unknown — could be a serviceable spot starter
- •MIA lineup has some hot bats (Stowers, Marsee, Sanoja) worth watching
- •Price slightly elevated at -147
Factor Breakdown