MLB Picks · August 26, 2026
Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins
Strong Lean
Red Sox ML
-129
83
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Boston Red Sox · Away
Sonny Gray (RHP)
Miami Marlins · Home
Ryan Gusto (RHP)
AI Analysis
Sonny Gray is one of the best arms in this entire slate — 2.79 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 123 Ks in 138.2 IP and an elite 16-3 record. He faces Ryan Gusto who has a 4.37 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in only 57.2 IP with an 0-3 record. Boston's offense is surging: 5.8 R/G L10, .848 OPS, riding a 5-game winning streak. Their team ERA of 3.33 and RA/G of 3.16 make them the best all-around team on this slate. Miami is a .500 team with average offense and an inexperienced pitcher. The -129 is palatable for this level of edge.
Concerns
- •Several Boston bats are cold in L14G — Rutschman, Monasterio, Wong ❄️
- •Miami has some capable hitters — Conine (.868 OPS), Stowers (.286 L14G 🔥)
- •Gusto's small sample size creates ERA uncertainty in both directions
- •Miami is at home, which provides a slight edge
Factor Breakdown