MLB Picks · July 12, 2026
Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets
Strong Lean
Red Sox ML
-110
74
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Boston Red Sox · Away
Payton Tolle (LHP)
New York Mets · Home
Zach Thornton (LHP)
AI Analysis
Boston is on an 8-game win streak and riding excellent pitching from Tolle (3.14 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) against a Mets starter in Thornton who has only 10.1 IP with a 4.35 ERA — essentially an unknown commodity likely making an early-career start. The Red Sox split vs LHP is strong (.267/.785), and their W8 streak speaks to genuine momentum. The Mets are 40-56 on L2 losing streak, and Lindor, Bichette, and Alvarez are all below-average performers recently. At -110, Boston represents solid value with clear pitching and form edges.
Concerns
- •Thornton's sample is tiny (10.1 IP) — could be a breakout or a disaster
- •Red Sox offense has modest season numbers (R/G 4.11, OPS .704)
- •Juan Soto (.980 OPS) is a genuine threat even in a weak lineup
- •Mets L10 offense shows 5.3 R/G — not completely cold
Factor Breakdown