MLB Picks · September 29, 2026
Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees
Strong Lean
Yankees ML
-135
75
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Boston Red Sox · Away
Payton Tolle (LHP)
New York Yankees · Home
Cam Schlittler (RHP)
AI Analysis
Cam Schlittler has been one of the best starters in baseball in 2026 — ERA 1.95, WHIP 0.92, 239 K in 193.2 IP — and represents a dominant pitching edge over Payton Tolle (ERA 3.03/WHIP 1.10). The Yankees' lineup actually hits LHP better than RHP (.245/.733 vs LHP, .229/.714 vs RHP), giving them a favorable split against Tolle. Ben Rice (41 HR, L14 .347) and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L14 .286) are hot, and the Yankees' team pitching (ERA 3.15/WHIP 1.16) is the best of any team today. Boston's offense has been dreadful over the last 10 games (2.1 R/G, .615 OPS L5), with multiple cold starters (Abreu .170, Contreras .191, Monasterio .083 L14). At -135, this is favorable pricing for the edge Schlittler provides.
Concerns
- •NYY lineup has several cold bats (Grisham .091, García .218, Caballero .188 L14)
- •BOS has a genuine ace-caliber ERA/WHIP team despite recent offensive slump
- •NYY L5 offense is also quiet (4.6 R/G, .677 OPS)
- •Tolle is capable — 9-6, ERA 3.03, 148 IP is a real starter
Factor Breakdown