Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers

Sonny Gray (2.76 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 17-5, 140 K in 156.2 IP) is one of the elite starters on this slate and represents a clear pitching advantage over Tyler Alexander (3.38 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, only 66.2 IP — limited track record in a starter role). Boston's team ERA (3.53) and RA/G (3.38) are both excellent. Texas hits only .236/.696 vs RHP, a below-average split directly disadvantaging them against Gray. The Rangers' recent offense is decent (5.1 R/G last 10) with some hot bats (Seager .298, Lopez .412 L14) but the pitching gap is meaningful. Boston at -126 is neutral value territory and Gray's resume justifies the lean.