Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Eduardo Rodriguez carries a sterling 2.61 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 155 IP — a high-volume, high-quality arm — against Boyd's more pedestrian 4.15 ERA. The critical edge is Arizona's splits: they hit .280/.798 vs LHP, directly exploiting Boyd's handedness. Corbin Carroll is scorching hot (.347 L14G) and Jose Fernandez (.316 L14G) adds lineup depth. The Cubs offense is hot (5.8 R/G L10) and splits well vs LHP, so this isn't a runaway, but the pitching gap and home splits lean Arizona. The -106 price is essentially a coin flip, making AZ a slight value play.