MLB Picks · July 8, 2026
Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles
Strong Lean
Cubs ML
+105
70
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Chicago Cubs · Away
Colin Rea (RHP)
Baltimore Orioles · Home
Dean Kremer (RHP)
AI Analysis
The Cubs enter riding strong recent form (7-3 L10, 6.1 R/G over last 10 games) with a potent lineup featuring hot hitters PCA (.908 OPS, 🔥), Swanson (🔥), and Conforto (🔥). Baltimore's Dean Kremer has only 17 IP of data this season (small sample), while Colin Rea's concerning ERA (4.74) is offset by BAL's own offensive struggles (3.6 R/G L10, .209 AVG). BAL is on a 2-game skid at 4-6 in L10 and their lineup is cold. At +105, there is slight positive value on a Cubs team that is playing their best baseball right now against a struggling Baltimore squad.
Concerns
- •Colin Rea has a 4.74 ERA and 1.43 WHIP — not a trustworthy starter
- •Dean Kremer ERA is excellent but based on only 17 IP (tiny sample size)
- •BAL still features Pete Alonso (19 HR, .807 OPS) and Gunnar Henderson
- •Cubs lineup has cold spots (Busch ❄️, Happ ❄️) despite overall team heat
- •Road game with nearly even moneyline limits the edge
Factor Breakdown