MLB Picks · June 22, 2026
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets
Strong Lean
Cubs ML
-125
76
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Chicago Cubs · Away
Shota Imanaga (LHP)
New York Mets · Home
Kodai Senga (RHP)
AI Analysis
Kodai Senga has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season with a 9.00 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in 24 IP, going 0-5. This is an overwhelming pitching disadvantage for the Mets. The Cubs' offense has been scorching in the L5 (6.0 R/G, .272/.853) with Pete Crow-Armstrong on a historic 14-game run (.448) and Seiya Suzuki also blazing hot. Imanaga is mediocre at 4.26 ERA but the WHIP (1.06) is manageable. The Mets lineup hits only .237/.678 vs LHP and has multiple cold bats. The Cubs are -125 which is neutral value territory and well-supported by this edge.
Concerns
- •Imanaga's 4.26 ERA means Cubs don't have a dominant arm either
- •Mets have gone 5-5 in L10 and Juan Soto (.973 OPS) is one of the game's best
- •Mets home-field advantage at Citi Field
- •Cubs are 1-game losers coming in (L1)
Factor Breakdown