MLB Picks · August 22, 2026
Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Strong Lean
Diamondbacks ML
-165
70
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Cincinnati Reds · Away
Rhett Lowder (RHP)
Arizona Diamondbacks · Home
Michael Soroka (RHP)
AI Analysis
Michael Soroka (2.93 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 8-3) is excellent and provides a clear pitching edge over Rhett Lowder (5.17 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 4-8). Cincinnati's offense is in a brutal slump (3.6 R/G in L5, .199/.603) with multiple cold hitters including De La Cruz, Bleday, Stephenson, Friedl, Myers all ❄️. Arizona's offense has been explosive recently (5.1 R/G in L5, .272/.822) with Moreno, Carroll, and Perdomo all performing well. The Reds also split worse vs RHP (.682 OPS vs RHP vs .735 vs LHP). At -165, there's slight negative value, but the pitching and offensive edges are clear.
Concerns
- •-165 price is slight negative value
- •AZ lineup splits worse vs RHP (.687 OPS vs RHP vs .796 vs LHP) — mirrors opp pitcher
- •Vargas at 1B is a weak spot for AZ lineup
- •Nootbaar cold (❄️) limits AZ depth
- •Reds have Sal Stewart solid and EDLC capable of going off
Factor Breakdown