MLB Picks · August 23, 2026
Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Lean
Arizona Diamondbacks ML
-129
65
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Cincinnati Reds · Away
Andrew Abbott (LHP)
Arizona Diamondbacks · Home
Mitch Bratt (LHP)
AI Analysis
The key driver here is Arizona's massive split advantage vs LHP: their lineup hits .279/.796 against left-handed pitching versus only .232/.688 vs RHP — a significant gap that directly applies against Abbott. Multiple Arizona hitters are hot (Carroll .294, Moreno .333, Perdomo) and the Diamondbacks' lineup is well-suited to punish southpaws. Abbott's 4.07 ERA and 1.40 WHIP doesn't inspire confidence. Bratt's 4.17 ERA in 36.2 IP is a concern, but Cincinnati's offense is weak (.694 OPS, 3.8 R/G in L10) with multiple ice-cold hitters. At -129, this is reasonable value.
Concerns
- •Bratt has only 36.2 IP — very small sample, unknown at this level
- •Abbott's full-season peripherals (108 Ks in 139.1 IP) are serviceable
- •Reds' Sal Stewart and Bleday can do damage if Bratt struggles
- •Arizona on a 1-game losing streak, 4-6 in L10 — slight form concern
Factor Breakdown