Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves

The Braves are the significantly better team (92-64) against a Reds squad that is 72-84 and playing their worst baseball (3-7 L10, 3.1 R/G last 10, .210 AVG). Williamson (5.56 ERA, 1.53 WHIP in just 43.2 IP) is a severe liability. Atlanta's offense has been productive (5.4 R/G last 10) with multiple hot hitters — Dubón, Baldwin, Acuña, Yastrzemski all showing strong recent form. Ritchie (5.03 ERA) is a concern, but Atlanta's massive offensive advantage and the Reds' dysfunction tip this clearly. At -193, the price is steep; a lean but not a strong play given the vig.