MLB Picks · September 9, 2026
Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Strong Lean
Los Angeles Dodgers ML
-291
75
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Cincinnati Reds · Away
Rhett Lowder (RHP)
Los Angeles Dodgers · Home
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP)
AI Analysis
Yamamoto (2.67 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 165 IP, 161 Ks) is the best starter on this entire slate and gives Los Angeles an enormous pitching advantage over Lowder (5.43 ERA, 1.49 WHIP). The Dodgers are 88-57 on a 6-game win streak, with a powerful lineup (OPS .759, 4.98 R/G) and several hot hitters (Betts, Hernandez, Edman). Cincinnati's lineup hits poorly vs RHP (.225/.693) and has multiple cold hitters (McLain, Bleday, Hayes). The -291 price is steep but Yamamoto's elite edge justifies a lean.
Concerns
- •-291 price is extreme negative value — requires true dominant edge to even consider
- •Elly De La Cruz is historically hot (.455 L14) and capable of any outcome
- •Dodgers have multiple cold bats (Ohtani, Tucker, Smith recently)
- •Cincinnati's recent offense has been better (5.2 R/G in L10) than their season numbers suggest
Factor Breakdown