MLB Picks · September 9, 2026
Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles
Strong Lean
Cleveland Guardians ML
-118
71
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Cleveland Guardians · Away
Foster Griffin (LHP)
Baltimore Orioles · Home
Shane Baz (RHP)
AI Analysis
Foster Griffin is one of the best starters in this slate — 3.26 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 160 IP, 15 wins with 142 Ks — giving Cleveland a strong pitching edge over Baz (3.91 ERA, 5-15 W-L). Baltimore is 3-7 in L10 with just 3.4 R/G in their last 10 games, while multiple Orioles are ice cold (Taveras, Basallo, Alonso cold recently). Cleveland has multiple hot hitters (Kwan, DeLauter, Bazzana, Bailey) and a 6-4 L10 record. At -118 the price is near neutral value.
Concerns
- •Baltimore hits LHP slightly better (.236/.715 vs LHP vs .233/.708 vs RHP) — minimal edge
- •Baz's 5-15 record may partly reflect run support issues, not pure ERA
- •Cleveland's Nathaniel Lowe is cold in L14
- •Both teams are in the .476-.507 range — not an elite vs weak matchup
Factor Breakdown