MLB Picks · September 25, 2026
Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox
Lean
Chicago White Sox ML
-252
67
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Colorado Rockies · Away
Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP)
Chicago White Sox · Home
Sean Burke (RHP)
AI Analysis
Sean Burke (ERA 3.40, WHIP 1.20, 178 K in 167.0 IP) is a clear advantage over Sugano (ERA 5.36, WHIP 1.33). The White Sox have been rolling (6.5 R/G L10, 6-4) and their offense features multiple hot bats (Meidroth 🔥, Grichuk .395 L14 🔥). Colorado is on a 4-game losing streak, sitting at 57-102 with Sugano posting a bloated ERA. While Colorado's offense has actually been decent (4.4 R/G L10), their team ERA of 5.53 and the pitching gap make this a strong lean for Chicago. The -252 price is steep but the edge is real.
Concerns
- •-252 price is in 'significant negative value' territory — requires an overwhelming edge
- •Colorado has decent contact hitters (McCarthy, Rumfield, Carrigg 🔥) who can put up runs
- •Sugano has a 12-11 record suggesting some run support outcomes can surprise
Factor Breakdown