Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals

Mitch Spence is a massive red flag for Kansas City at ERA 13.50, WHIP 2.25 — even in a tiny 4 IP sample, that is an automatic disqualifier for trusting KC's pitching. Washington's Andrew Alvarez is modest (ERA 3.70, WHIP 1.44) but represents a massive relative advantage. The Nationals offense is the best in this matchup — 6.2 R/G over the last 10, James Wood (.972 OPS, 20 HR), CJ Abrams (.894 OPS), and Keibert Ruiz (.809 OPS, hot L14). KC hits just .238/.680 vs LHP which plays directly into Alvarez's hand. Washington's record (37-35) and form (W2 streak, 6-4 L10) also edge KC (29-43, 5-5 L10). Line at -133 is neutral-value territory.