Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals

The Nationals present a clear multi-factor edge here. Washington is 39-35 with a 7-3 L10 record and a 4-game win streak, scoring 6.0 R/G over the last 10 games. Their lineup features James Wood (OPS .967, 20 HR), CJ Abrams (.876 OPS), and Keibert Ruiz (.801 OPS) — a formidable group. Avila's ERA of 6.19 and WHIP of 1.81 in 32 IP is a massive red flag, making him a liability against this hot offense. Littell's ERA (5.32) is imperfect but workable, and KC comes in with a 29-45 record and a losing streak. The Nationals are priced at -136, which represents neutral value given the edge.