MLB Picks · September 9, 2026
Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox
Strong Lean
Boston Red Sox ML
-218
70
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Los Angeles Angels · Away
Ryan Johnson (RHP)
Boston Red Sox · Home
Jake Bennett (LHP)
AI Analysis
Jake Bennett (3.34 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 99 IP) has a strong edge over Johnson (5.17 ERA, 1.39 WHIP). Boston is a strong team (80-66, .548) with an excellent team ERA (3.53) and RA/G (3.37). The Angels are the worst team on this slate (55-90), their offense is limited (3.4 R/G in last 10, .634 OPS in L10) with several ice-cold hitters (Peraza, Guzman, Siri). The -218 price is steep, but the actual edge across pitching and team quality is large. Treat as a lean given the price.
Concerns
- •-218 price is in significant negative value territory — requires overwhelming edge
- •Boston lineup has several cold hitters recently (Durbin, Monasterio, Wong, Sogard)
- •Boston only scoring 4.0 R/G in last 10 games
- •Angels' Neto and Trout provide some pop
Factor Breakdown