MLB Picks · July 11, 2026
Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins
Strong Lean
Minnesota Twins ML
-181
73
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Los Angeles Angels · Away
Ryan Johnson (RHP)
Minnesota Twins · Home
Joe Ryan (RHP)
AI Analysis
Joe Ryan (2.85 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 122 K in 104.1 IP) is a dominant ace-level starter versus Ryan Johnson's dismal 6.99 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in only 28.1 innings. Minnesota's lineup hits RHP much better (.256/.761 vs RHP vs .226/.675 vs LHP), a strong split advantage facing Johnson. The Angels are 2-8 in their last 10 and scoring only 3.9 R/G in the L5, making this a multi-factor lean for Minnesota. The -181 price is steep but the pitching edge here is overwhelming.
Concerns
- •-181 line is expensive and limits value
- •Twins are only 46-49 and on a 2-game losing streak
- •Mike Trout (.859 OPS) and Zach Neto (19 HR) can hurt anyone
- •Minnesota offense not elite (4.86 R/G)
Factor Breakdown