Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves

AJ Smith-Shawver has pitched only 8.2 IP with a 6.23 ERA and 1.62 WHIP — essentially an unknown quantity but with poor early results. Sasaki (4.42 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 114 Ks in 116 IP) is a legitimate starter who clearly outclasses the Braves' spot option. LA's lineup is elite — Ohtani (.934 OPS), Freeman (.299 AVG), Max Muncy (.855 OPS, .318 L14G 🔥) — and they hit .261/.767 vs RHP. The Dodgers are the best overall team in this dataset (80-52) and their pitching staff (3.63 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) is top-tier. Atlanta's offense has been ice cold (2.7 R/G L10, .601 OPS) despite individual talent. The -127 is palatable.