Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies

Sandy Alcantara (ERA 4.01, WHIP 1.24, 110 IP, 8-4) is a proven ace-level arm, and Colorado's TBD starter creates an enormous pitching disadvantage for the Rockies. Miami has gone 8-2 in L10 with strong recent offense (4.7 R/G in L10) and a superior team ERA (3.94 vs COL's 5.47). Colorado is 33-51 with the worst pitching staff ERA in this group. Even playing at Coors (which is excluded from this analysis per instructions), the Marlins have the superior starter, better record, and better pitching staff. At -144, price is at the neutral threshold.