Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals

Alcantara (3.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 183.2 IP, 13-8) is a workhorse ace and the best arm in this game by volume and durability. Cavalli (3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) is nearly as sharp statistically but Alcantara's track record and innings load give him a slight edge. The key difference: MIA's offense has three hot hitters (Marsee, Stowers, H. Hernández all above .300 L14), while WSH's lineup has several cold bats (Abrams .145, Nuñez .125, Abrams' production is worrying). WSH has a poor team ERA (4.65) and WHIP (1.43) suggesting bullpen concerns. MIA at near-even -104 is reasonable value for the pitching edge.