MLB Picks · July 4, 2026
Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Strong Lean
Brewers ML
-156
77
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Milwaukee Brewers · Away
Brandon Woodruff (RHP)
Arizona Diamondbacks · Home
Merrill Kelly (RHP)
AI Analysis
Brandon Woodruff has been exceptional in his return — 2.59 ERA, 0.84 WHIP across 41.2 innings, a dominant performance. Merrill Kelly has struggled all season (5.84 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 5-8) and Arizona hits RHP significantly worse (.225/.661 vs RHP vs .271/.772 vs LHP) — a major split disadvantage against Woodruff. Milwaukee is the best team in the NL at 54-32, going 7-3 in the L10. Multiple Brewers hitters are hot (Frelick, Mitchell, Chourio). The -156 price is in slight negative value territory, but the pitching and team quality edges are substantial.
Concerns
- •Woodruff's 41.2 IP sample — small, though results are elite so far
- •-156 price is slight negative value
- •AZ has Ketel Marte (.345 L14) as a dangerous individual threat
- •MIL has a few cold hitters (Chourio, Yelich recently)
- •AZ on a 2-game losing streak but L10 only 4-6
Factor Breakdown