Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves

Jacob Misiorowski has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball in 2026 — 1.34 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 131 Ks in 87 IP, and an 8-2 record. Atlanta's lineup hits LHP better (.250/.733 vs LHP) than RHP, but Misiorowski's elite metrics make the split advantage minimal. Meanwhile, Milwaukee's offense is legitimately hot: 6.6 R/G over their last 5, Jackson Chourio (.344 L14 🔥) and Christian Yelich (.302 L14) are firing. Martín Pérez has been solid (2.90 ERA) but Atlanta has gone just 4-6 in their last 10 and 3-game losing streak, scoring only 3.7 R/G in that span. The pitching gate is firmly cleared by Misiorowski's dominant profile. At -168, this is a reasonable favorite price given the ace advantage.