MLB Picks · August 25, 2026

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets

Strong Lean
Brewers ML
-159
75
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Milwaukee Brewers · Away
Kyle Harrison (LHP)
New York Mets · Home
Zac Thornton (LHP)
AI Analysis

Kyle Harrison is having a standout season (2.84 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 122 K in 98.1 IP) and is clearly the best pitcher in this matchup. Milwaukee's offense has been rolling (5.8 R/G in L5, multiple hot hitters — Mitchell, Ortiz, Vaughn) and the team is best in the NL at 81-50. The Mets' lineup hits LHP poorly (.234/.699) matching the opposing starter's handedness, and New York has several cold bats (Ewing, Alvarez). Thornton (3.04 ERA in 50.1 IP) is competent but outmatched. Milwaukee at -159 is on the pricier side but the pitching and team quality gap is substantial.

Concerns
  • Price at -159 requires a near-certain edge
  • MIL also hits LHP worse (.240/.698) — self-matchup concern
  • Thornton's ERA respectable; small sample though (50.1 IP)
  • Several Brewers hitters cold (Turang, Yelich)
Factor Breakdown
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