MLB Picks · September 22, 2026
Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies
Strong Lean
Milwaukee Brewers ML
+114
70
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Milwaukee Brewers · Away
Dustin May (RHP)
Philadelphia Phillies · Home
Zack Wheeler (RHP)
AI Analysis
Zack Wheeler (2.99 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 177 K) is excellent, but the Phillies offense has gone cold — scoring just 3.9 R/G over the last 10 games with a .221 AVG. Multiple core Phillies hitters are ice cold (Schwarber, Arraez, Stott, Marsh, Realmuto). Meanwhile, Milwaukee enters on a W3 streak with the best record in this slate (98-58), and their offense has been on fire (6.8 R/G last 10, .280/.811). The Brewers hit well vs RHP (.264/.761) with multiple hot bats (Turang .381 L14, Mitchell, Ortiz). Dustin May's 4.61 ERA limits the pitching edge, but the offensive and form advantage is clear. At +114, the Brewers represent value.
Concerns
- •Wheeler is a top-tier starter — this is a tough assignment for Milwaukee's offense
- •May's 4.61 ERA is a significant liability — Phillies can score
- •Philadelphia at home with a quality ace
- •Sal Frelick ice cold limits lineup depth
Factor Breakdown