MLB Picks · September 23, 2026
Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies
Strong Lean
Brewers ML
-126
78
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Milwaukee Brewers · Away
Logan Henderson (RHP)
Philadelphia Phillies · Home
Aaron Nola (RHP)
AI Analysis
Logan Henderson is one of the best starters in baseball this season: 2.51 ERA, 0.81 WHIP in 93.1 IP — that is elite. Milwaukee is also the superior team at 98-59 with a dominant offense that has scored 6.4 R/G over the last 10 games. Nola's ERA (4.49) and WHIP (1.35) are pedestrian, and Philadelphia's lineup has gone cold with Schwarber, Stott, Marsh, and Realmuto all in ❄️ territory recently. Milwaukee hit RHP at .759 OPS this season. The Brewers are slight favorites at -126, offering good value given their clear advantages in pitching, offense, and form.
Concerns
- •Nola has high K rate (169 K) and can still carve lineups
- •Philadelphia's Harper and Arraez remain consistent
- •Phillies at home on W2 streak
- •PHI hits RHP at .708 OPS — below average but not terrible
- •Brewers on L1 streak despite strong overall form
Factor Breakdown