MLB Picks · July 11, 2026
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Strong Lean🐶 Dog of the Day
Pittsburgh Pirates ML
+104
71
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Milwaukee Brewers · Away
Brandon Sproat (RHP)
Pittsburgh Pirates · Home
Braxton Ashcraft (RHP)
AI Analysis
Braxton Ashcraft is the clear pitching advantage here with a 3.24 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 9-3 record over 108.1 innings — elite stuff compared to Sproat's 5.13 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Pittsburgh's lineup is scorching hot (6.3 R/G over last 10 games, .289/.836) and multiple hitters are trending up, including Valdez, Gonzales, and Mangum. Ashcraft's pitch quality alone earns the edge, and the Pirates at +104 offers real value for a home underdog with a superior starter. Milwaukee's offense has cooled slightly (4.6 R/G L5) and faces a pitcher who limits damage.
Concerns
- •Milwaukee is 59-34 — elite team overall despite cold recent offense
- •Sproat's ERA is ugly but small sample size (79 IP) adds noise
- •Several MIL hot bats (Mitchell .415 L14, Ortiz .325 L14) could erupt
- •PIT on a 2-game losing streak despite the hot offense metrics
Factor Breakdown