MLB Picks · July 6, 2026
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals
Strong Lean
Brewers ML
-111
76
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Milwaukee Brewers · Away
Shane Drohan (LHP)
St. Louis Cardinals · Home
Dustin May (RHP)
AI Analysis
Milwaukee is the class of this matchup. At 55-33 (.625) with the best team ERA (3.35) and RA/G (3.66) among today's games, the Brewers carry structural advantages throughout. Shane Drohan (ERA 3.12, WHIP 1.23) is a solid start and faces a Cardinals lineup that splits .250/.715 vs LHP — slightly below their RHP numbers. The Brewers' offense hits .262/.759 vs RHP (May) and features multiple hot bats: William Contreras, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, and David Hamilton all trending up in L14. St. Louis's Dustin May (ERA 4.80) provides no pitching edge. Near-even money (-111) is excellent value for the best team in this slate.
Concerns
- •Drohan has only 57.2 IP as a starter — limited track record
- •Cardinals lineup has Jordan Walker (OPS .881) and Masyn Winn hot (L14 .321)
- •STL at home, .540 record — not a pushover
- •Yelich ice cold in L14 (.137) hurts MIL lineup depth
Factor Breakdown