MLB Picks · July 5, 2026
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves
Strong Lean
Braves ML
-109
73
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
New York Mets · Away
Nolan McLean (RHP)
Atlanta Braves · Home
Martín Pérez (LHP)
AI Analysis
Atlanta holds a clear multi-factor edge here. Martín Pérez (3.27 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) is the better starter by a significant margin over McLean, and the Braves' lineup hits RHP well (.250/.731), featuring hot bats in Harris II, Olson, and Dubón. The Mets are 36-53 with a dreadful L10 of 2-8 and carry a mediocre offense. NYM's lineup does get a slight splits boost vs LHP (.239/.696 vs season .227/.665), but it's a modest edge and the Mets' overall quality is well below Atlanta's. At near-even moneyline (-109), the Braves offer genuine value.
Concerns
- •Braves L10 is only 4-6 despite strong overall record
- •Several Braves hitters cold recently: Baldwin (.057 L14), Mateo (.103 L14), Smith (.229 L14)
- •McLean has been solid (3.78 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) and could neutralize Atlanta
- •NYM has Soto (.964 OPS, .326 L14) as a legitimate lineup threat
Factor Breakdown