MLB Picks · August 23, 2026
New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox
Lean
White Sox ML
-104
68
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
New York Mets · Away
Nolan McLean (RHP)
Chicago White Sox · Home
Sean Newcomb (LHP)
AI Analysis
Sean Newcomb's 2.44 ERA and 1.10 WHIP represent genuine value, and the White Sox lineup is producing at 5.0 R/G over the last 10 games with multiple hot hitters (Vargas .320, Grichuk .387, Peters .314 L14). The Mets struggle vs LHP (.235/.703 vs LHP), which matches up poorly against Newcomb. Chicago's lineup hits RHP slightly better than LHP but has real offensive firepower with Vargas (29 HR), Murakami (29 HR), and Montgomery (27 HR). At even money (-104), this is reasonable value for the home side with the pitching edge.
Concerns
- •Newcomb's 70 IP sample — durability through late season?
- •Mets have strong hitters in form: Bichette (.358), Benge (.370), Semien (.260) L14
- •McLean is solid (3.34 ERA, 162 Ks) — this is not a pushover pitching matchup
- •Mets' team RA/G (2.93) is the best figure in this set — excellent run prevention
Factor Breakdown