MLB Picks · September 12, 2026
New York Mets vs New York Yankees
Strong Lean
Yankees ML
-171
75
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
New York Mets · Away
Zac Thornton (LHP)
New York Yankees · Home
Gerrit Cole (RHP)
AI Analysis
Gerrit Cole provides a legitimate pitching edge — ERA 3.41, WHIP 1.09, 113 K in 111 IP — against a Thornton who is serviceable but not dominant (ERA 3.53, 66.1 IP). The Yankees lineup vs LHP shows an upgrade (.247/.736) and features multiple hot hitters including Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Luis García Jr., and Paul Goldschmidt, all scorching in the L14. NYY are 85-62 on the season with a 4-game win streak and strong R/G of 5.1. The Mets are 68-79 with a weaker offense overall. The -171 line is slightly negative value but the edge is real enough to play.
Concerns
- •Mets have gone 7-3 in L10 and carry some momentum
- •Juan Soto is cold (❄️) in recent 14G despite high season OPS
- •Aaron Judge cold (❄️) recently — two key bats underperforming
- •Thornton is left-handed which neutralizes the Yankees' LHP splits advantage partially
Factor Breakdown