MLB Picks · June 21, 2026
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies
Strong Lean
Phillies ML
-187
71
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
New York Mets · Away
David Peterson (LHP)
Philadelphia Phillies · Home
Zack Wheeler (RHP)
AI Analysis
Zack Wheeler is having an elite season (2.01 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 6-1) — one of the best starters in the NL — providing a dominant pitching edge over David Peterson (5.91 ERA, 1.63 WHIP), who has been shelled all year. The Phillies offense has been hot (5.6 R/G last 10) with Schwarber (28 HR, .963 OPS, .339 L14), Bohm (.308 L14), Stott (.298 L14), Crawford (.306 L14), and Marsh (.250) all contributing. The Mets offense (.671 OPS, 4.07 R/G) is one of the weaker units and hits RHP poorly (.668 OPS). At -187, the line is steep but Wheeler's edge is overwhelming.
Concerns
- •-187 price limits value — need comfortable win probability to cash
- •Phillies also struggle vs LHP (.678 OPS) — though Peterson's ERA suggests they'll score
- •Juan Soto (.327 L14, .976 OPS) is a dangerous bat who can win any game
- •Mets have won 5 of last 10 and scored 4.4 R/G recently
Factor Breakdown