MLB Picks · June 25, 2026
New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox
Strong Lean
Yankees ML
-149
81
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
New York Yankees · Away
Cam Schlittler (RHP)
Boston Red Sox · Home
Connelly Early (LHP)
AI Analysis
Cam Schlittler is pitching at an elite level (1.71 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 109 K in 95 IP, 8-3) and faces a Boston lineup that hits RHP poorly (.234/.673 vs RHP). The Yankees are the best team in this slate by record (48-31) with a powerful offense (5.06 R/G, .766 OPS) that is surging hot vs LHP (.256/.787). Boston is 32-46, trending poorly (3-7 L10, 3.3 R/G L5). Early's 3.64 ERA is decent but the Yankees vs LHP split creates a real offensive edge. The -149 price is near neutral value and fully justified by the dominant pitching and team quality gap.
Concerns
- •Early's 3.64 ERA is respectable — not a pushover
- •Fenway Park historically favors hitters, could neutralize Schlittler somewhat
- •Yankees have several cold hitters (Ben Rice, Austin Wells)
- •Boston's Durbin is hot (.319 L14) and Rafaela is solid
- •-149 edges toward slight negative value territory
Factor Breakdown