MLB Picks · June 28, 2026
New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox
Strong Lean
Red Sox ML
-117
70
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
New York Yankees · Away
Carlos Rodón (LHP)
Boston Red Sox · Home
Sonny Gray (RHP)
AI Analysis
Sonny Gray (2.95 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9-1 W-L) is the best pitcher in this matchup and one of the better starters on today's slate. Boston's splits vs LHP are excellent (.270/.766) — a direct and significant edge against Rodón. The Red Sox are on a W3 streak going 6-4 L10 while the Yankees have collapsed to 3-7 L10 with only 2.5 R/G in L5 and a L3 skid. Despite Boston's poor overall record (35-46), Gray's dominance and the favorable LHP split make them the correct side. At -117, this is near even-money and represents genuine value against a Yankees team in a deep slump.
Concerns
- •Yankees are a better overall team (48-34) — regression candidate
- •Rodón (3.70 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) is a quality starter himself
- •Yankees offense vs RHP (.237/.753) is functional and has power depth
- •Boston's weak offense overall (.700 OPS) could underperform LHP split
Factor Breakdown