MLB Picks · July 8, 2026
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
Strong Lean
Rays ML
-120
71
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
New York Yankees · Away
Gerrit Cole (RHP)
Tampa Bay Rays · Home
Shane McClanahan (LHP)
AI Analysis
Tampa Bay holds a meaningful edge in this matchup. Shane McClanahan (3.05 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) is the superior pitcher over Gerrit Cole (4.01 ERA, limited to 42.2 IP this season). The Yankees' offense has completely fallen off a cliff — 3.2 R/G over the last 10, a .164/.521 slash/OPS, and 2-8 in their last 10 games. Multiple core hitters are ice cold: Bellinger (❄️, .096 L14), Rice (❄️, .192 L14), Caballero (❄️, .170 L14), Goldschmidt (❄️, .149 L14), Wells (❄️, .088 L14). Tampa's lineup is solid vs RHP (.263/.755) with Junior Caminero (.917 OPS, 26 HR) and Yandy Díaz (.893 OPS) providing thunder. The Rays are 7-3 L10 and own the better record.
Concerns
- •Cole has only 42.2 IP this season — small sample, could be better than ERA suggests
- •NYY still have meaningful offensive talent capable of breaking out at any time
- •Yankees' season-long team ERA (3.40) is the best pitching staff in this matchup
- •TB -120 is a reasonable price but Yankees -101 away price shows respect for NYY
- •TB's middle-lower lineup (Walls, Palacios, Williamson) is below average
Factor Breakdown