MLB Picks · August 12, 2026
Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals
Strong Lean
Phillies ML
-158
71
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Philadelphia Phillies · Away
Zack Wheeler (RHP)
St. Louis Cardinals · Home
Kyle Leahy (RHP)
AI Analysis
Zack Wheeler is the class of this matchup — ERA 2.69, WHIP 0.98, 132 K in 110.1 IP is elite. Philadelphia's offense has caught fire over the last 10 games (5.2 R/G, .255/.770) with Stott and Crawford hot. Kyle Leahy (ERA 3.45) is respectable but faces a dangerous Phillies lineup that hits RHP at .240/.713. The -158 price is a slight negative, but Wheeler's dominance justifies the play given the offensive firepower behind him.
Concerns
- •Phillies on a 1-game losing streak, Arraez and Marsh cold recently
- •Leahy is a legitimate arm — ERA 3.45, 8-4 record
- •STL L10 6-4 and offense is warming up (.265 AVG, .749 OPS last 10 games)
- •Price of -158 slightly reduces value
Factor Breakdown