MLB Picks · September 12, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs
Strong Lean🐶 Dog of the Day
Pirates ML
+104
71
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Pittsburgh Pirates · Away
Paul Skenes (RHP)
Chicago Cubs · Home
Clay Holmes (RHP)
AI Analysis
Paul Skenes is the clear pitching edge here — ERA 3.83, WHIP 1.15, 181 K in 155 IP — against Clay Holmes who has a solid ERA (2.83) but lower strikeout rate (65 K in 86 IP) and a more hittable profile. Pittsburgh's offense vs RHP checks in at .258/.754, above their season splits, and features hot bats in Oneil Cruz, Jared Triolo, and Brandon Lowe. The Cubs lineup has several cold hitters (Busch ❄️) and their L10 form is just 4-6. At +104, Pittsburgh offers slight positive moneyline value with Skenes on the mound — a lean worth taking.
Concerns
- •Holmes' ERA 2.83 is excellent — underrated pitching matchup
- •Cubs boast powerful hitters: Pete Crow-Armstrong (41 HR, 🔥), Bregman (🔥), Conforto (🔥)
- •PIT's R/G in L5 has dipped to 4.2 — offense cooling
- •Cubs are home at Wrigley with a better overall record (82-66)
Factor Breakdown