MLB Picks · July 19, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians
Strong Lean
Pirates ML
-107
74
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Pittsburgh Pirates · Away
Paul Skenes (RHP)
Cleveland Guardians · Home
Joey Cantillo (LHP)
AI Analysis
Paul Skenes (3.57 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 130 K in 108.1 IP) is among the better starters on this slate and faces a Cleveland lineup that is one of the weaker offenses in the AL — OPS .679, 3.95 R/G, hitting just .232/.688 vs RHP. Pittsburgh's offense has been among the hottest in baseball (6.9 R/G in L5, .830 OPS) and the Pirates are 7-3 in L10. Skenes' elite WHIP and strikeout rate give Pittsburgh a clear pitching edge. Cantillo has a concerning 1.40 WHIP despite his decent ERA, and the Guardians' lineup is full of cold bats (Manzardo .111 L14, Fry .130, Bazzana .196).
Concerns
- •Pittsburgh hits .251/.715 vs LHP — their splits are notably worse vs lefties like Cantillo
- •Cantillo has solid 8-4 record and 105 K; his ERA (3.56) is respectable
- •Pirates are on a 1-game losing streak coming off a hot run
- •Cleveland has home field advantage
- •Line is essentially a pick'em (-107/-113)
Factor Breakdown