MLB Picks · August 5, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers
Strong Lean
Brewers ML
-123
73
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Pittsburgh Pirates · Away
Paul Skenes (RHP)
Milwaukee Brewers · Home
Kyle Harrison (LHP)
AI Analysis
Kyle Harrison (3.01 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 101 K in 83.2 IP, 8-2 record) is one of the best starters on today's slate and edges Skenes (3.90 ERA, 1.11 WHIP). Milwaukee is 70-43 — the best record in this game — on a W1 streak with 4.6 R/G in L10. Critically, the Brewers lineup hits RHP extremely well at .260/.754, and their top bats (Turang .315 L14, Bauers .878 OPS, Chourio .805 OPS) are in good form. Pittsburgh hits LHP poorly (.246/.693) and several key bats are cold (Reynolds .175, Horwitz .192, Valdez .119 L14).
Concerns
- •Skenes has elite K-rate (156 K) — can keep any game close
- •PIT has a potent lineup on paper (.748 OPS) but weak vs LHP splits
- •MIL several bats cold recently (Contreras, Mitchell, Yelich L14)
- •-123 is modest price, reasonable value given Harrison's edge
Factor Breakdown