MLB Picks · August 28, 2026
Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals
Lean
Pittsburgh Pirates ML
-114
63
/ 100
Starting Pitchers
Pittsburgh Pirates · Away
Jared Jones (RHP)
St. Louis Cardinals · Home
Quinn Mathews (LHP)
AI Analysis
Quinn Mathews is making spot starts with an 8-start-level exposure: ERA 6.43, WHIP 1.79 in just 14.0 IP — he has been extremely hittable. Pittsburgh's offense, while cold lately (3.2 R/G L10), hits much better vs LHP (.258/.759) than vs RHP, giving them a handedness edge. Jared Jones (ERA 4.76, WHIP 1.25) is not elite but is serviceable against a Cardinals lineup that hits .242/.693 vs RHP. STL is running 3-7 in their last 10. At -114, Pittsburgh is near pick'em territory, which is fair value for the pitching gap. However, PIT's recent cold streak is a concern.
Concerns
- •PIT offense is cold: 3.2 R/G in last 10, .201 AVG L5
- •Several PIT hitters cold vs LHP hand: Gonzales (.260 L14 but .239 vs LHP split)
- •Jones ERA 4.76 — not a dominant arm himself
- •STL home lineup has hot hitters: Burleson .333 L14, Walker .304 L14, Church .294 L14
- •Mathews' sample size (14 IP) adds variance risk
Factor Breakdown